Kelly at Texas Type A Mom wrote not long ago about Old Wives Tales for Gender Prediction, and how they did or didn’t work for her.  I thought that was a fun and interesting idea – seeing how various methods of gender prediction stack up for various individuals – so I decided to tackle the topic myself, as well.  You’re going to see a couple of posts on the topic.  First, let’s talk about the methods themselves.

The Ancient Methods/Old Wives’ Tales

The Chinese Gender Calendar

It’s easy to write off the Chinese Gender Calendar, because it’s “astrology.”  But keep in mind that just because a culture didn’t understand how something worked and, therefore, made up an explanation for it that fit into their own belief system, does not inherently mean that there was not truth to the thing in the first place.  So…how/why is this theorized to work, and is it a viable concept?

According to the Chinese Gender Calendar site, there are a number of factors involved.

1. Apparently, sperm cells are polarized.  That is, they are either electrically positive or electrically negative, depending on whether or not they contain a Y chromosome.
2. Apparently, the ovum membrane is also polarized, but its polarity rotates cyclically.  (I did not get the impression that this rotation matches the menstrual cycle, but that it has a cycle of its own.)
3. The astrological connection concerns the alignment of the planets during conception.  While this sounds outrageous at first blush, we do know that things like electrical fields are affected by changing gravitational fields, so it seems theoretically possible that electrical charges of living things could be altered by the changing seasons or years.

So the theory seems to amount to this: the electrical interaction of the ovum’s membrane with the incoming sperm cells determines which one succeeds, and this electrical interaction is affected by the earth’s position in relation to other celestial bodies.

My Thoughts

While I am not saying that I necessarily believe that it is accurate, I can see where, theoretically, there could be some validity to this general concept.  However, the “mother’s age” aspect gives me pause.  The calendar is used by cross-referencing the conception date with the age of the mother at the time of conception.  This makes no sense to me.  I can see the calendar cycle being a predictor of the electromagnetic state of the earth, or something along those lines, but I don’t see what the mother’s age has to do with it.  I assume that the idea is that mama’s age correlates somehow to that ovarian cycle discussed earlier, but I can’t imagine there would be a direct correlation by age across all women.

So my conclusion is that there may be some underlying validity to a tendency toward more boys or more girls during certain periods, but that this cannot be the close-to-100% predictor that proponents claim the refined version of the calendar should be.

My Experience

The calendar has been accurate for all three of my children born so far (grey circles).  However, you can see from the submitted statistics that there is a pretty  large variance from month to month in the accuracy of the predictions.  (Not that any one month has enough data for a statistically significant conclusion, but as it stands right now…)

Interestingly, my current conception time frame has close to a 50-50 accuracy rate. (The blue numbers are the number of submitted statistics that were correct predictions; the red are the number of incorrect predictions.)

It predicts another girl (purple circle in the graph at the head of this section). 

Ring Above the Belly

To use this method, you tie a needle or ring (some sources specify the wedding ring) to a string, and suspend it above the expectant mama’s belly while she’s lying down.  If the ring swings in a circle, the folk wisdom says she’s having  a girl; if it swings back and forth like a pendulum, she’s carrying a boy.

My Thoughts

This is ridiculous.  I can’t begin to imagine any possible basis for this as a sound theory.  [Correction:  Okay, before I have even finished this post, I have to eat my words.  I suspect an electromagnetic energy field connection.  See below.  I still don’t believe that whether it’s your wedding ring that’s used is relevant.  And given my experience, I don’t believe that the variation involving holding the object over mama’s wrist will work at all.]

My Experience

Despite my complete disbelief in this as holding any validity, I am testing every “old wives'” method here for the sake of being thorough.  I used my wedding ring just to sure I did it “right,” according to all versions of the “legend.”  😉  It definitely swung back and forth (or, rather, up and down, toward my head and feet).

I was actually stunned at what I experienced when I tried this.  I very carefully stabilized the ring with my fingers so it wasn’t moving, then gently let go.  It did start itself swinging quite distinctly in a wide arc – I almost had to be concerned about its hitting me in the face!  (If I held the ring over other parts of me – like my leg, wrist, or face – or over any of my daughters’ heads, it swung in a circle.  Over the bed, it didn’t really move at all – just sort of spun in place.  Over my husband, it swung like a pendulum.  (I tried the bed and my knee first, after getting the initial “pendulum swing,” just see if it was sheer physics that causes the object to swing.  After confirming that wasn’t the case, and trying my toddler’s head, I was intrigued and tried the others.)  There is definitely something acting on the ring, because it sets itself to moving, without any assistance.

This method predicts a boy.

High or Low?

Are you carrying high?  Then you’re having a girl.  Carrying low?  Baby’s a boy.  Or so the story goes.

My Thoughts

I doubt that carrying position has much to do with baby’s gender.  Every pregnancy is different, whether girls or boys are involved.  Mothers’ shapes vary.  And babies’ positions vary.

My Experience

I am long-waisted, so I seem to have lots of space for baby to settle in.  I have carried low every time.  This baby is carrying slightly differently, but I suspect that’s due to the fact that s/he is completely posterior, which none of my other babies were.  (Midwives know that both of these factors – a long-waisted mama and a posterior baby – can cause a mother to measure slightly smaller for dates.)

This method predicts a boy.  (But it would have predicted a boy for the three girls I already have, so that theory is already shot.)

Morning Sickness?

Various predictions have been made regarding degree of morning sickness and the gender of the coming baby.  They are typically not consistent.

My Thoughts

I suspect there can be some correlation here between the gender of the baby you’re carrying and the degree of morning sickness you experience, because the totality of the hormones circulating through your body will be different.  However, each woman’s body responds so differently that I don’t think there’s any direct, observable 1:1 correlation.

My Experience

I have not had any serious morning sickness during any of my pregnancies.  Does that predict a girl or predict a boy?  Seems to depend on your source.

Drano

This suggests the combination of morning urine (after the first 4 months of pregnancy) with crystal Drano (lye).  As any of you who have made soap will know, this combination of liquid with lye creates very caustic fumes, so if you try this, you should use proper safety gear – like rubber gloves – do it outside, and definitely do not mix it with your face above the jar!  Because it’s not considered to be accurate, it’s not really worth the danger of working with lye, so I don’t really recommend you do it.  The idea is that when this chemical reaction finishes taking place, if there is also a color change, you’re having a boy.  No color change?  It’s a girl.

My Thoughts

I think the idea here is that the chemicals produced by the hormones of the baby are, theoretically, to interact with the lye to produce results.  There doesn’t seem to be any scientific basis for it, though.  (The concept of chemical interaction has a basis, of course, but there don’t seem to be any particular constituents in expectant mothers’ urine that will react with lye in such a way as to produce a particular consistent reaction.)

My Experience

In the interest of science, I tried this. 😉  I don’t have any crystal Drano, by that brand name.  I do have lye crystals for soapmaking.  (They’re still crystal drain opener – just a different brand.)  Handling lye requires a good deal of caution (and I would not do this around young children!), but I do it when making soap, so I don’t see it as any more dangerous.

There is a clear darkening here.  By most theories, I think this predicts a boy.  (Although I seem to remember reading some theories that suggest it has to turn green to indicate a boy.)

First Words

I had never heard this one before Kelly’s post – possibly because it applies only to children who aren’t first babies.  The way this goes, if the previous sibling’s first word was “mama,” the baby will be a girl.  If the previous sibling’s first word was “daddy,” the baby will be a boy.  (I’m not sure what proponents suggest if the older sibling’s first word wasn’t daddy or mama!)

My Thoughts

Um…does anyone here doubt that this is just silly?

My Experience

Considering that my eldest two children’s first words weren’t mama or daddy, I’m not sure what I was supposed to have been expecting for #2 and #3 by this method.  Puppies?  Ariel’s first word was “touchdown.” If you want to count that as a masculine word, then I guess Sophia should’ve been a boy.  Sophia’s first word was “Ariel.”  Since Ariel is a girl, maybe that means Livia “should,” indeed, have been a girl.  Livia’s first word was “Daddy,” I think.  So this method, silly as it is, predicts a boy.

Heartrate

According to this theory, the heart rate of the baby is indicative of gender.  Up to 140 bpm (some sources say 150) = girl.  Over 140 bpm (or 150 bpm) = boy.

My Thoughts

Scientifically, this does not measure up.  A healthy baby’s heartrate varies – both throughout a day and over the course of a pregnancy.  Its overall range changes as baby develops and the pregnancy advances, as well.

My Experience

At my last midwives’ appointment, baby’s heart rate was over 150 bpm.  At the appointment before that, it was in the 130’s.  (I don’t know/remember what my daughters’ were, so I can’t compare.)  So this method is inconclusive.

Neither Old Wives’ Tale Nor Science

IntelliGender

I was honestly not certain if I should put this under “Old Wives’ Tales” or under “Modern Science,”  which is why it got its own section.  It seems to sort of straddle the fence.  This over-the-counter test works similarly to a urine-based pregnancy test.  Used after the tenth week of pregnancy, it is designed to interact with the cocktail of hormones present in a pregnant woman’s urine and chemically produce an “answer.”

In theory it is based on measurable, scientific factors (the presence of specific hormones).  However, its accuracy can be affected by a number of external factors – like intercourse, hormone supplementation, or certain conditions that include hormonal imbalances, as well as simple user error like shaking instead of swirling the test – so it’s more a “for fun” thing than the average medical method of determination.  The accuracy rate seems to be about 50-50, which is as good as guessing.

My Thoughts

Definitely more affordable and easy to access than the average medical method of determination, IntelliGender is a fun option for most expectant parents.  It doesn’t seem to be invalid, but it doesn’t have a noteable accuracy rate, so its usefulness is limited.

My Experience

none

Modern Science

Amniocentesis

Amniocentesis involves the use of a needle to extract a bit of the amniotic fluid.  It is typically not used specifically to determine gender but, rather, to identify the probability of various genetic defects, etc.  I assume there is fetal DNA present in the amniotic fluid and this is what is tested, which would mean that the gender determination is quite accurate.

My Thoughts

The problem with amniocentesis is that it’s an invasive procedure involving significant risks, such as miscarriage, Rh sensitization, premature labor, or infection.  As a result, I don’t believe this test is worth the risk (certainly not purely for gender identification purposes!)

My Experience

none

Chorionic Villi Sampling

This is another medical test typically used to check for genetic abnormalities.  Performed between 8 and 10 weeks of pregnancy, it involves taking a sampling of placental tissue.  (That’s oversimplified and not technically precise, but it’s close enough.)

My Thoughts

Because it involves fetal DNA, it should be quite accurate.  However, like amniocentesis, we’re talking about an invasive procedure.  Risks may include Rh sensitization, ruptured membranes, miscarriage, infection, bleeding, and missing limbs in the developing baby.  It’s also possible for the specimen to be contaminated, prohibiting accurate analysis.  As with amniocentesis, I don’t see these risks as worth taking – and certainly not if all you want to know is whether baby’s a boy or a girl!

My Experience

none

Ultrasound

This is probably the best-known and most commonly-used modern medical tool for determining gender.  It involves the use of ultrasound technology to “see” the baby inside the womb.  It’s only useful for gender recognition after the 20th week of pregnancy, as the baby’s gender is not visibly apparent until that time.

My Thoughts

I might come across as overly cautious here, but I would personally not recommend ultrasound purely for the purpose of identifying baby’s gender.  Although it is generally believed to be safe, ultrasound was never intended by its developer to be used during the course of a normal pregnancy.  (It was intended for diagnostic purposes when problems were suspected.)  There is some theorizing – not confirmed, but which seems valid for following up on – that ultrasound use (including the use of Doppler, which is ultrasound-based) during the brain-development stage of pregnancy may be a contributing factor to the rise in autism rates. (source 1, source 2, source 3)

The accuracy also varies.  Of course, things like the position of the baby and the expertise of the technician make a difference!  We have ended up with late-term ultrasounds in two of our three previous pregnancies.  One of our daughters made it very clear that she was a girl; the other would not allow any view at all of the necessary parts.  (This is another risk – that you may be exposing your baby to ultrasound and still know nothing more than you already did.)

My Experience

We did end up with a late-term ultrasound (for other reasons).  At 36 weeks it is, of course, much easier to identify the gender of the baby than earlier in pregnancy!  Since our little one was cooperative in positioning, the tech was able to make out parts and identified our baby as a boy.

ViaGuard Jack or Jill

The ViaGuard Jack or Jill test is the “new kid” on the scene. It makes use of a blood draw to test fetal DNA circulating in the mother’s bloodstream.  It must be performed after the 7th week of pregnancy in order to ensure there is sufficient fetal DNA present.  [See here for my full review.]

My Thoughts

It’s definitely pricier than OTC options, and I doubt most insurance will cover it, so that’s a downside.  However, with the cost removed from the equation, this seems to be an excellent option.  It doesn’t carry any risks other than whatever very minimal risks may be associated with a routine blood draw.  It can be done quite early – certainly earlier than ultrasound gender determination.  And the accuracy rate is 98% or better.  (As the test checks for the presence of a Y chromosome, I suspect that if the test says “boy,” it’s pretty much 100% accurate, while there’s a very slight possibility of testing as “girl” if you’re carrying a boy.)  I don’t see any real possibility of risk to the baby with this option, which makes it a better choice than any of the other very accurate options.

My Experience

This was pretty simple and straightforward, apart from the lab’s initially being a little confused about what to do with a test they aren’t analyzing.  This test predicts a boy.

The Tally

So we’ve talked about a total of 12 gender prediction methods – 7 old wives’ tales and 5 modern/scientific/medical methods.  Of these 12, I tried 10.  (All of the old wives’ tales and 2 of the modern methods.)  The tally?

Boy: 5-6
Girl: 1
Inconclusive: 2-3

The Results

Obviously, as of the writing of this post, I don’t know for certain which test(s) predicted correctly!  When I do, I will be sure to link to that post from this space, for the big reveal.  In the meantime, I’d love to know of your experience with any of these methods.  Were they right?  Or wrong?

[UPDATE: A comment alerted me to the fact that I never updated this post for non-regular readers!  This little one was a BOY. 🙂 ]